U.S. President Donald Trump threatened "very severe" tariffs on Canadian potash fertilizer imports Monday, aiming to boost domestic production amid rising costs for American farmers.
Speaking at a White House roundtable, Trump said: "A lot of it does come in from Canada, and so we’ll end up putting very severe tariffs on that, if we have to, because that’s the way you want to bolster here." (White House transcript, CTV News, Financial Post)
If Trump imposes tariffs—currently at 10% for non-CUSMA-compliant shipments—the Canadian economy faces minimal disruption. Canada exports about 12 million tonnes annually to the U.S., worth $2-6 billion, mainly from Saskatchewan mines like Nutrien's.
Most shipments qualify for CUSMA exemptions, remaining tariff-free. Producers report no expected volume drops, with affordable pricing and alternative markets in Brazil and Asia absorbing any shifts.
Temporary U.S. demand slowdowns are possible, but experts like RBC Capital Markets foresee resilience, preserving jobs and GDP contributions without broader ripple effects.
Trump's threat coincided with a $12-billion aid package for farmers battered by trade tensions. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlined plans to reshore fertilizer manufacturing while urging price cuts from suppliers.
Canada supplies over 80 per cent of U.S. potash needs, with Saskatchewan as the primary source (Fertilizer Canada, USGS data via Global News) The U.S. imports 90 per cent of its potash, producing just 400,000 tonnes domestically in 2023 against 5.3 million tonnes consumed, according to the U.S. Geological Survey and The Fertilizer Institute.
Fertilizer Canada warned tariffs would jeopardize North American supply chains, noting U.S. reserves cannot meet demand. (Statement to CBC News, Global News).
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe called the move unwise, saying it risks forcing reliance on Russian imports. Industry experts say ramping up U.S. output could take 10-15 years. (Argus Media, S&P Global Commodity Insights)